The Ever-Changing Landscape: Understanding Firearms Market Dynamics in 2025

From the Bench: A student's perspective on market forces shaping our industry

By Hootey Cline, Blue Coat Arms Company

Originally published June 13, 2019 | Updated July 1, 2025

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As someone still learning the intricacies of this fascinating industry, I've observed that the firearms market operates unlike any other sector I've encountered. It's simultaneously the most stable and volatile market you'll ever witness – a paradox that continues to teach me something new every day.

The Political Pendulum: How Elections Shape Our Market

The Trump vs. Obama Effect: A Study in Contrasts

Looking back at recent political cycles, the market patterns have been remarkably consistent yet counter-intuitive. During the Obama administration, firearms sales experienced unprecedented growth – not because of pro-gun policies, but precisely because of the opposite. Fear of potential restrictions drove massive purchasing waves.

When Trump was elected in 2016, something interesting happened: sales actually decreased. People felt less urgency to purchase firearms when they perceived the political climate as more favorable to gun rights. It's a perfect example of how fear and uncertainty drive our market more than actual policy.

The 2016 Election: A Survival Moment

The 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton was viewed by many in the Second Amendment community as an existential moment. Sales spiked dramatically right up until Trump was declared the winner, then immediately dropped off. This taught me that our market often runs on emotion and perception as much as actual need.

The Tragedy-Driven Sales Cycle

An Uncomfortable Reality

One of the most difficult aspects of this industry to understand is how tragic events affect sales patterns. Every time there's a mass shooting, we see immediate spikes in sales driven by two primary fears:

Fear of government reaction: People rush to purchase firearms before potential new restrictions

Fear for personal safety: Individuals seek protection in an uncertain world

As someone learning this business, this pattern troubles me deeply. While I understand the psychological drivers, it highlights how our industry is intrinsically linked to some of society's most challenging issues.

The Great Gun Grab of '94: Lessons Learned

The Clinton Crime Bill and Assault Weapons Ban of 1994 left a lasting impact on gun owners' psyche. Many people who lived through that period vowed never to be caught unprepared again. This generational memory continues to influence purchasing decisions today, even among younger gun owners who didn't experience it firsthand.

Seasonal Patterns and Practical Drivers

Predictable Cycles

Beyond political and tragic events, our market follows more predictable patterns:

Black Friday and holiday rushes: Gift-giving season drives significant sales

Hunting seasons: Practical needs create steady demand

Tax refund season: Disposable income timing affects purchases

The Illinois Challenge

Here in Illinois, we face unique challenges that affect our business timing. The combination of holiday rushes and Chicago's urban violence creates massive backlogs at the Illinois State Police for background checks and FOID applications. This teaches patience – both for us as dealers and for our customers.

The Changing Demographics: A Revolution in Progress

Women Leading the Charge

The most significant change I've witnessed in this industry is the dramatic increase in female participation. Current data shows that women now account for nearly half of new gun buyers – a massive shift from just two decades ago.

Updated statistics for 2024-2025:

• 25% of women now own firearms (approximately 42 million women)

• 40% of men own firearms (approximately 63 million men)

• 92% of women and 91% of men cite protection as their primary reason for ownership

This represents a fundamental shift from the stereotype of gun ownership being limited to "old guys in camo coveralls."

The Functionality Problem

As this demographic shift occurs, I've noticed a concerning trend: much of the gear and equipment marketed to women prioritizes appearance over functionality. Pink doesn't make a holster work better, and we need to do better as an industry.

Functionality should always trump appeal and design. 

This is something I'm still learning to balance in my own work – creating pieces that are both beautiful and completely functional.

Market Psychology: Toys vs. Tools

The Dual Nature of Demand

One insight that continues to fascinate me is how the same product serves different psychological needs depending on circumstances:

When times are good: People buy firearms as recreational items – toys to enjoy at the range or for hunting

When times are bad: The same firearms become tools for survival and protection

This duality means our market remains relatively stable regardless of economic conditions, just with different motivational drivers.

Industry Evolution and Education

The SHOT Show Standard

The Shooting, Hunting and Outdoor Trade (SHOT) Show remains THE industry event each year. As an FFL holder, attending SHOT has been educational in understanding industry trends, new technologies, and networking with other professionals. It's not open to the public, which maintains its focus as a true trade show.

Marketing Evolution: From Zombies to Reality

The "zombie craze" of the early 2010s was brilliant marketing that brought many new people into the firearms community. While it might have seemed gimmicky, it served as a gateway for people who might otherwise never have considered firearms ownership.

Growing the Community Through Conversation

Despite what media narratives suggest, I see new people entering the Second Amendment community every day. Individual conversations and education remain our most powerful tools for growth. Fear-mongering might drive short-term sales, but education builds long-term community members.

Design Philosophy: Art Meets Engineering

The Beauty vs. Function Debate

As someone who works on both historical and modern firearms, I constantly grapple with the tension between artistic design and tactical engineering. Some firearms are simply too beautiful to shoot or carry regularly – they're works of art that happen to be functional.

But for everyday carry and practical use, function must take priority. This is a lesson I'm still learning as I develop my own restoration and customization skills.

Current Market Realities (2024-2025)

Updated Market Data

Recent statistics show:

• Over 500 million firearms are owned by civilians in the US

• 16.1 million firearms were sold in 2024 (a 3.4% decrease from 2023)

• 32% of American adults personally own a gun

• An additional 10% live in households with guns

Geographic Distribution

• Rural areas: 47% ownership rate

• Suburban areas: 30% ownership rate

• Urban areas: 20% ownership rate

Learning from Blue Coat Arms Company's Perspective

Our Unique Position

Blue Coat Arms Company is one of the few gunsmith shops in central Illinois actively involved in Research and Development projects for contractors. This gives us a unique perspective on both historical craftsmanship and cutting-edge innovation. Our training from Sonoran Desert Institute provides both the historical knowledge to understand market evolution and the technical skills to serve modern needs.

Serving All Eras

Our slogan "No Matter Your Era, We Got Your Six" reflects our commitment to serving everyone from collectors of historical firearms to users of the latest tactical equipment. This broad perspective helps us understand market dynamics across different customer segments.

Looking Forward: What I'm Still Learning

The Complexity of Prediction

While I can identify patterns in our market, predicting exactly when and how dramatically sales will spike remains challenging. Political rhetoric, media coverage, and social events all interact in complex ways.

The Human Element

What continues to strike me is how deeply human this market is. Behind every sale is a person making a decision about protection, recreation, collecting, or sporting use. Understanding these motivations helps us serve customers better.

Technology and Tradition

Balancing respect for traditional craftsmanship with embracing new technologies and manufacturing methods is an ongoing learning process. Both have their place in serving our diverse customer base.

From the Gunsmith's Bench: Final Thoughts

The firearms market teaches humility. Just when you think you understand it, political winds shift, social dynamics change, or new technologies emerge. As someone still learning this craft and business, I find this constant evolution both challenging and fascinating.

What remains constant is the fundamental human desire for security, recreation, and the appreciation of fine craftsmanship. Whether someone is buying their first firearm for protection or commissioning a custom restoration of a family heirloom, we're serving real human needs.

The market will continue to be "weird" – stable yet volatile, predictable yet surprising. But that's what makes this industry endlessly educational for those of us committed to serving it with skill and integrity.

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Blue Coat Arms Company specializes in serving the full spectrum of firearms owners, from historical restoration to modern tactical work. Contact us at 217-416-5962 or BlueCoatArms@gmail.com for your gunsmithing needs. No matter your era, we got your six.